An Effort to Institutionalize a Culture of Science-Based Policy Making Through Energy Modeling Tools.
Research and Development Director
Indonesian Institute for Energy Economics (IIEE)
Energy models are effort to capture the complex relationships and flows of energy in an energy system. People use energy models to reflect complex system in understandable form, help to organize large amount of data and provide a consistent framework for testing hypotheses. A model allows for the exploration of relationships between cause and effect and thus answers questions that may be interlinked to the change of an input value, which may have complex effects. These inputs are grouped into scenarios, which answer questions of “what if”, or “what is the effect of”.
Unfortunately, in many cases, results of those model are often too technical and do not accommodate the social and intangible factors. As a result, those results are give less benefit to the decision making process. This could be attributed to the fact that few non-governmental scientists or modelers are consulted by governments on energy policy decision and these scientists generally have a limited understanding of the government decision-making processes and how to effectively engage.
This is a call for Indonesian Institute for Energy Economics (IIEE) to fill this ‘gap’. IIEE has been taking initiative to play its role in fostering and institutionalizing a culture of science-based policy making particularly in energy sector which is in line with IIEE’s original mission i.e. to provide input, suggestion, and recommendation in any related energy economic issues to Indonesian government. IIEEM (Indonesian Integrated Energy Economics Modeling), Indonesia Energy Security and Clean Energy Modeling (IESCM), and Indonesia 2050 Pathway Calculator (I2050PC) are examples of tools developed by IIEE as means for achieving the above mentioned mission.
IIEE had developed in-house energy modeling software called IIEEM (Indonesian Integrated Energy Economics Modeling) since 2003. This software has been used as modeling tool to perform energy-economic analysis for several clients such as State-owned Electricity Company (Perusahaan Listrik Negara, PLN), State-owned oil and gas company (Pertamina) and Stargas. Recently, in 2013-2014, this software was improved to embrace the environmental issues. The IIEEM name was then changed into I2E3M (Indonesian Integrated Energy Economics Environmental Modeling). This latest version was used to support Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) background study for Indonesian National Medium Term Development Plan (Rencana Jangka Panjang Menengah Nasional Indonesia, RPJMN). I2E3M adopts the National Energy Model System (NEMS) basic structure of the United States’ Department of Energy. I2E3M structure uses a modular approach which consists of the followings: 4 energy supply modules (oil and gas, coal, transmission and distribution of oil and gas, new and renewable energy); 2 conversion modules (electricity and refinery); 4 demand modules (household, commercial, industry and transportation); international energy activities module; macroeconomic module; and environmental module. Fig. 1 shows the model structure of I2E3M.
The integration module (IM) plays an important role in distributing data from one module to the other modules, and finding the equilibrium solution based on specific tolerance value. Another function of IM is to extract various generated data to create final reports of the modules. Each module has different output data to be used for further analyses. Furthermore, the interaction among modules is intended to find final solution under the optimization approach.
To support the same study (background study of RPJMN), IIEE also developed Indonesia Energy Security and Clean Energy Modeling (IESCM). IESCM is not an energy model, but rather a computer program developed in order to help energy planner and decision maker in assessing the level of energy and clean energy. By using this tool the decision maker can assess and compare energy security, renewable energy utilization, and its environmental impacts among scenarios planning as well as benchmark among other countries quantitatively (see Fig. 2 (b)). This tool consist of a set of indicators which previously agreed by stakeholders through a series of consultation process. One of key feature of this tool is its ability to minimize subjectivity of experts since this tool is developed by use the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) approach. Figure 2 shows the user interface and output of IESCM.
Figure 2 (a) User interface of IESCM and (b) example of IESCM output
IIEE is also supporting the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) of Indonesia in developing the Indonesian version of the 2050 Calculator called Indonesia 2050 Pathway Calculator (I2050PC), a user friendly web tool to explore energy and greenhouse gas emissions scenario related to change in technology and activities in sectors of the economy.
Team members consist of representatives from MEMR, National Development Planning Agency, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of Environment, National Energy Council, and the Statistics Agency. UKDECC and UKFCCU are supporting this activity.
The change in technology and activities in sectors of economy are defined in 4 levers. Level 1 shows the minimum effort to reduce CO2 emission while level 4 corresponds to the ambitious changes that push towards the physical or technical limits to reduce CO2 emission. The definition and assumptions in each level is obtained from a series of consultation process with a wide range of stakeholders. The latest progress of I2050PC can be accessed through the link http://calculator2050.esdm.go.id/pathways.
Instead of providing precise and complex energy modeling result, I2050PC focus in providing the implication of selected combination of levels of change in different technologies interactively. Since this tool allows non-experts to develop their own scenarios, this tool is potentially used by the decision maker (government) as a public communication tool. By using this tool, users from different background are encouraged to develop their own scenarios and send them to the decision maker (government) so that the government able to figure out the public aspiration related to energy planning scenario.
I2E3M, IESCM, and I2050PC are just the starting point of a long way of effort to institutionalize a culture of science-based policy making in energy sector. A lot of works are needed to refine the model or even to create new frameworks or approaches in fostering the above mentioned decision making culture in the future. Collaborations with experts both from government and non-government institutions are expected to improve sub-sector or module of those models. The collaboration should be conducted based on the expertise of the institutions. The contribution of University of Indonesia (UI) in macroeconomic module, University of Gajah Mada (UGM) in transportation model, Institute Technology of Bandung (ITB) in technological consideration, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) and National Energy Council (DEN) in regulatory framework are the example of the expected collaboration.
If those proposed collaboration and harmonization could be performed, all of the Indonesian energy stakeholders can expect to have a common harmonized Indonesian energy modeling that could be used as powerful tools for performing prudent quantitative analysis during development of related energy policies and regulations in Indonesia, to optimize the energy resources utilization including renewable energy, to improve Indonesian energy security for the benefit of Indonesia peoples [hkb].