Written by: Putu Indy Gardian
In sustainable energy management, energy conservation programs take major role in order to reduce national energy consumption. Unfortunately, publication and study about quantitative impact of energy conservation programs on energy consumption reduction in Indonesia is scarce to find. Based on that fact, Indonesian Institute for Energy Economics has successfully carried out a research on impact of energy conservation policies through policy-based modelling method.
Through “Support to Monitoring and Estimation of Energy Conservation Policies Impact” project with ESP3-DANIDA as donor, IIEE had opportunity to analyze impact of energy conservation policies to Indonesia final energy demand reduction from 2015 until 2050. The analysis was done by using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) energy model, where the inputs for energy model were obtained from either primary sources (FGD, interview, etc.) or secondary sources (literature, official publications, etc.). The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of 23 energy conservation programs in 4 sectors on demand side: household, commercial buildings, industry, and transportation. Later, those policies will be ranked based on their potency to reduce final energy demand.
Final energy demand is projected in 3 scenarios: Business as Usual, Market Driven, and Policy Intervention. Business as Usual scenario represents the reference scenario of the National Energy Policy (Kebijakan Energy Nasional, KEN). In this scenario, average energy intensities are assumed to be constant as its value of the base year (2015). Market Driven scenario assumes that improvement of energy intensity is only driven by the economic or market consideration. While, in Policy Intervention scenario, beside natural market considerations, Government of Indonesia will also implement a series of energy conservation policy to force the market to consume less energy to generate the same level productivity throughout the planning horizon.
According to the study’s result, total energy savings that could be achieved by applying Policy Intervention scenario is greater than leaving the market to be self-driven. By comparing Business as Usual to other two scenarios, whilst Market Driven scenario only saves 4% and 9% of final energy demand for year 2025 and 2050 respectively, Policy Intervention scenario is potent to reduce 10% and 21%.
In Policy Intervention scenario, if we look bit deeper into the details, we found that all the sectors do not share same amount of energy conservation potency, which are shown in the table below:
The difference in amount of energy saved potential is dependent to each policy’s efficacy, feasibility, and adaption time. For instance, in short run energy conservation programs for industry sector only contribute 2.85% of energy saving, whereas in long run those programs lead the number by almost 7.5% of energy saving. This is projected to be happened as application of many energy conservation policies in industry sector tend to be costly and time-consuming, thus the adaption time is far lengthy for the policy to settle.
As conclusion this result shows that enactment of energy conservation policies is significant and necessary to conserve energy, hence should be strived for.
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